The World That Was

Adrian Olivier,

Sunday 16 March – Sunday 23 March:

On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to fire Shin Bet director Ronen Bar amid months of rising tensions. Bar, appointed in 2021, had accepted responsibility for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 attack and intended to step down before his term ended in 2026. A Shin Bet investigation into the attack also blamed Netanyahu for prioritizing containment of Hamas over addressing its growing threat. The decision to dismiss Bar follows two recent Shin Bet probes into Netanyahu’s advisers—one involving leaked classified documents related to ceasefire talks and another investigating alleged Qatari-funded public relations efforts in Israel.

On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Carney stressed the importance of ties with “reliable allies” in Europe and reaffirmed Canada’s distinct identity, stating it would “never, ever, in any way, shape or form, be part of the United States”. Standing alongside Macron, he described Canada as both North American and “the most European of non-European countries.” Carney then travelled to London to meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and King Charles III, Canada’s head of state. Prime Minister Carney and Prime Minister Starmer emphasized the importance of building a stronger Canada-UK relationship. The leaders highlighted transatlantic security and the trade and investment relationship between Canada and the UK. To that end, they discussed opportunities to expand the Canada-UK trade corridor and responsibly leverage technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum to benefit workers and economies in both countries.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone, during which Putin agreed to a temporary cease-fire on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure but resisted a broader peace plan proposed by Trump. The Kremlin stated that Putin ordered the Russian military to comply with a 30-day halt on strikes. The White House confirmed further negotiations in the Middle East to expand the deal, including discussions on a Black Sea maritime cease-fire and a permanent peace agreement. Additionally, Putin informed Trump that Russia and Ukraine would conduct a prisoner swap on Wednesday, exchanging 175 prisoners each. 

On Tuesday, Germany’s Bundestag approved a historic fiscal reform, allowing unprecedented levels of debt to fund military, infrastructure, and climate investments. This marks a major shift from the country’s long-standing fiscal conservatism, which had been defined by the constitutional “debt brake” limiting structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP. The new package exempts defence spending above 1% of GDP, as well as infrastructure and climate-related investments, from deficit restrictions. The reform, backed by the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens, is designed to reverse decades of underinvestment and boost economic growth after two years of contraction. It also provides additional fiscal space for Germany’s 16 federal states. While aid for Ukraine falls under the defence exemption, infrastructure spending can only be transferred to the special fund once it exceeds 10% of the core budget—though climate-related expenditures are not subject to this restriction. Rather than directly reforming the debt brake, lawmakers opted for a politically negotiated workaround by embedding this complex fiscal package into the constitution. While this approach expands fiscal flexibility, it also reflects Germany’s cautious, rule-bound approach to economic policy, balancing political priorities with the need for increased public investment.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump described his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “very good,” despite Ukraine and Russia accusing each other of violating a U.S.-brokered cease-fire on energy infrastructure. Trump, acting as an intermediary, insisted that peace efforts were “very much on track” and promised further details soon. The call came a day after Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day halt on energy attacks. However, Zelensky reported that overnight, Russia launched 145 drones, four cruise missiles, and two ballistic missiles, hitting energy sites and hospitals, contradicting Putin’s claimed cease-fire order.

On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a sweeping crackdown to consolidate power, detaining his main political rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, raiding the homes of 106 opponents, and imposing a four-day protest ban. İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and expected presidential candidate for the opposition CHP, was arrested on charges of extortion, bribery, fraud, and links to the outlawed PKK. He called the accusations a political conspiracy. The crackdown caused the lira to plunge nearly 13% and the stock market to drop over 8%. Despite bans on protests and public transport closures, demonstrations erupted in several cities, with students clashing with riot police in Istanbul.

On Thursday, the Bank of England held interest rates at 4.5%, in a widely expected move. The nine-person Monetary Policy Committee, which sets the rate, voted 8-1 in favour of holding – with one member voting to cut. The MPC said “global trade policy uncertainty has intensified” in recent weeks, citing US tariffs and other countries’ responses. While Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that uncertainty, he also said: “We still think that interest rates are on a gradually declining path.”

On Friday, it was reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering lifting sanctions on Turkey and potentially resuming the sale of advanced fighter jets, including the F-35, after a phone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to the reports, Trump is open to Turkey’s return to the F-35 program if Ankara agrees to disable or relocate its Russian S-400 missile defence system. Turkey was removed from the F-35 program because of its purchase of the S-400 in 2019. Trump’s team has reportedly requested legal and technical assessments on how to bypass violations of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). During their phone call, Erdoğan told Trump that lifting CAATSA sanctions and finalizing a $23 billion F-16 deal are key to restoring cooperation in the defence sector. In addition, Erdoğan asked the US to lift sanctions on Syria. 

On Friday, Germany’s second chamber of parliament, the Bundesrat, voted in favour of a massive spending package aimed at pouring billions of euros into defence, infrastructure and climate protection. Approval from the Bundesrat, which represents Germany’s 16 federal states, was necessary for the reform to pass into law. The amendment was backed in the Bundesrat with 53 out of 69 votes in favor, passing the 46-vote threshold. Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, and Rhineland-Palatinate abstained, with abstentions counted as opposition votes. The same day, the Budget Committee of the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, has approved €3 billion ($3.25 billion) in additional military aid for Ukraine in 2025 and another €8.3 billion from 2026 to 2029. The €3 billion package comes on top of €4 billion in military aid to Ukraine already planned in the 2025 budget. A spokesman for Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the equipment to be delivered to Ukraine would consist of Iris-T air defence systems, guided missiles, surveillance radars, drones, combat vehicles and light weapons. German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said the German-made Iris-T air defence systems had yet to be built and would be delivered over the next two years.

Zimbabwe’s Sports Minister, Kirsty Coventry, has won a surprise election to take control as president of the IOC (International Olympic Committee). Britain’s Sebastian Coe was seen as a frontrunner but was comfortably beaten in the ballot. Coventry is a member of the ruling ZANU PF party led by Emmerson Mnangagwa and is accused of benefitting from the ‘land seizures’ ordered by late Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe. A report in the UK’s Daily Telegraph indicates she and her husband Tyrone, farm and reside on ‘Cockington Estates’, a property from which the Cary family were evicted over 20 years ago. 

On Saturday, foreign ministers from Japan, China and South Korea met in Tokyo to discuss cooperation on trade, regional security and other issues amid rising geopolitical tensions. Also included in the discussion were the topics of aging populations, declining births, natural disasters and the green economy. No major announcements emerged from the meeting, though the South Korean foreign minister urged a stop to military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, adding that North Korea should not be rewarded for its wrongdoings in the course of bringing about the end of the Ukraine war. He said it is important for Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing to carry out UN sanctions against Pyongyang faithfully – reading between the lines it was a dig at Chinese support of the Hermit Kingdom. 

On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap election, saying he needs a mandate from Canadians to take on U.S. President Donald Trump. The election campaign for 343 seats or districts in the House of Commons will last 36 days (the shortest allowed under the law), with the election taking place on April 28. The Liberals are attempting to secure a fourth mandate, a feat last pulled off in Canada in the 1970s, after a miraculous recovery in popularity stemming from Trump’s statements about absorbing Canada.

Also on Sunday, expelled South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool arrived home to tell the waiting crowd he stood by everything he had said when he accused the Trump administration of having a white supremacist agenda. Also on the weekend, ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula described Trump’s team as ‘neo-colonial, imperialists’. Meanwhile the GNU (Government of National Unity) is bogged down in a dispute over the budget with a potential VAT increase being vetoed by the DA (Democratic Alliance). If no agreement is forthcoming, and the DA abandons the GNU, there is talk of the possibility of a new election.

War-torn Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi has proposed a minerals for security barter arrangement with the US. The proposal has received a positive response from Washington and talks are ongoing.