The World That Was

Adrian Olivier,

Sunday 2 March – Sunday 9 March:

On Sunday, cryptocurrency prices surged after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would move forward on a U.S. crypto strategic reserve that will include Bitcoin and Ether, as well as Solana, XRP and Cardamon. “A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration,” said Trump in a post on his social-media platform Truth Social. “I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World.” As of Sunday afternoon, Bitcoin rose 9% from 24 hours earlier to around $93,000, while Ether jumped 11% to $2,500. Solana surged 20% to $169. XRP advanced about 30% to $2.80, while Cardano soared nearly 60% to $1.02. 

On Monday, the U.S. announced it was pausing all military aid to Ukraine until President Trump determines Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making a good-faith effort toward peace negotiations with Russia. A senior administration official said all of Trump’s top national security advisers agreed with the decision to pause the aid after several meetings on the issue. Trump, enraged by Zelensky’s comments that he thought the end of the war was far away, felt the need to show he was serious about getting Ukraine to the peace table. “The Ukrainians didn’t think we were serious,” the administration official said. “We had to make a demonstration.” Without new U.S. military aid, Ukraine likely has enough weapons to keep fighting Russia at its current pace until the middle of this year, current and former Western officials say. That is the result in part of a surge of new weapons approved by the Biden administration in its final days. Over time, Ukraine could find it harder to make longer-term plans for its military arsenal or to buy parts for its existing systems. Ukraine currently builds or finances about 55% of its military hardware. The U.S. supplies around 20%, while Europe supplies 25%. 

On Tuesday, President Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect. Canada responded with plans to impose 25% tariffs on about $100 billion of U.S. imports, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying Trump is acting in “bad faith” and the U.S. president threatening more tariffs. Mexico’s president said it would also retaliate, with a range of moves to be announced Sunday. The U.S. also introduced an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports overnight, adding to a levy imposed a month ago, and other existing duties. China swiftly announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, and other measures against American companies. Beijing also filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization. On Wednesday, Trump granted a one-month exemption to 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts traded through the North American trade agreement, USMCA, after speaking with leaders of automakers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Trump then broadened the exemption beyond autos for Mexico and some imports from Canada on Thursday.

On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Francewill consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to its allies. “I’ve decided to open the strategic debate on the protection by our deterrence of our allies on the European continent,” he said in a live broadcast on his official social media channels, during which he stressed the need for Europe to continue assisting Ukraine and strengthen its own defence. Macron also warned that Europe was “entering a new era,” and that it would be “folly” to remain a “spectator” to the threat from Russia. “The United States, our ally, has changed its position on this war, is less supportive of Ukraine and is casting doubt on what will happen next,” Macron said, adding: “I want to believe that the United States will remain by our side, but we need to be ready if that were not the case.” He announced he would invite European leaders to a meeting in Paris next week to work on a plan to deliver a “durable peace,” which may include deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine “once peace has been signed” to prevent Russia from re-invading. France possesses an estimated 290 nuclear weapons compared to 5,580 Russian nuclear weapons. For a nuclear deterrent to work, there must be no possibility of surviving a strike. The relatively small French arsenal, while it ensures French sovereignty, does not pose the same kind of threat that the American nuclear arsenal does. Consequently, it will not be nearly as effective as the American nuclear shield. 

On Thursday, Alawite gunmen ambushed a Syrian police patrol in the coastal town of Jableh, near the city of Latakia, killing at least 13 security members and setting off a wave of violence on Friday that has resulted in at least 1,000 killed in reprisals by Sunni Muslim gunmen loyal to the government. Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, on Sunday blamed the violence on the remnants of Assad’s forces and said his government would hold accountable anyone involved in the deaths of civilians. “We will not tolerate the remnants of Assad’s forces,” he said. “They have only one option: to surrender themselves to the law immediately.”. The revenge killings that started Friday by Sunni Muslim gunmen loyal to the government against members of Assad’s minority Alawite sect are a major blow to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the faction that led the overthrow of the former government. 

On Friday, in a speech to the Polish parliament, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said work is under way to make all men in Poland undergo military training. Tusk said the government aimed to give full details in the coming months. “We will try to have a model ready by the end of this year so that every adult male in Poland is trained in the event of war, so that this reserve is comparable and adequate to the potential threats,” he said. Tusk said Poland needs an army, including reservists, of 500,000 men – up from a current size of 200,000. He also said Poland would be safer if it possessed its own nuclear arsenal, but ruled it out in the short term. Poland is already planning to spend 4.7% of its economic output on defence this year, the highest proportion in the Nato alliance. Tusk told parliament that spending should increase to 5% of GDP. Earlier, President Duda proposed amending the constitution to make defence spending at a level of 4% of GDP compulsory.

On Friday, Russia carried out huge ballistic missile and drone strikes across Ukraine and launched an offensive to recapture territory held by Ukrainian forces in Kursk. The Russian offensive, including a daring move to insert special forces behind Ukrainian lines through a now-unused gas pipeline, threatened to encircle some 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers within Russia. Yuri Podolyaka, a Ukrainian-born, pro-Russian military blogger, said Russian Special Forces crept nearly 16 kilometres along the inside of the 1.5 metre-wide gas pipeline and spent several days in the pipe before surprising Ukrainian forces from the rear near Sudzha. By Sunday, the Russian offensive had taken back more Russian territory. “The lid of the smoking caldron is practically closed,” Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president who is now the deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council, said on Sunday of Russian advances in Kursk. “The offensive continues. Carry on!”

On Sunday, Mark Carney won the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party. Now prime-minister designate, Carney, 59 years old, will officially become Canada’s new leader in the coming days and immediately take over his country’s response to President Trump’s trade war. The former central bank chief of both Canada and England is expected to quickly call a general election to take advantage of polling momentum against the Conservative Party of Canada, which just weeks ago seemed on the cusp of a landslide. “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” Carney said on Sunday, speaking to Liberal Party members in Ottawa after this win. “So Americans should make no mistake. In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”

Relations between Pretoria and Washington remain fraught with the South African government admitting they have been unable to find anyone in the Trump administration willing to receive their delegation. Meanwhile a group representing the DA (Democratic Alliance) met ‘senior officials’ on a recent visit and report significant policy changes will be required from the GNU (Government of National Unity) if further punitive action against South Africa is to be avoided.