The World That Was

Adrian Olivier,

Sunday 9 June – Sunday 16 June:

On Sunday, results from the European Parliament elections were announced, massively disrupting politics in several European countries as the far-right parties gained a record number of votes. In France, President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election after his party was defeated by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).“I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future by voting. I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly this evening,” Macron said. The elections to pick a new parliament will take place on 30 June and 7 July. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) also won a record number of votes in a show of discontent with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party governing coalition. In total, the far-right won around 150 of the European Parliament’s 720 seats, potentially frustrating efforts by mainstream parties to form majorities needed to pass laws. EU Commission President Von der Leyen appeared to rule out any possibility of the party banding together with the far-right factions, telling journalists that she will be reaching out to The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and centrist and liberal Renew Europe to form a “broad majority for a strong Europe.”

On Sunday, Ukraine said it had destroyed a Russian Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet parked on a runway in Russia. The attack took place on June 7 on the Akhtubinsk airfield, which is located in Astrakhan, in southern Russia – around 600 kilometres.behind the frontlines. The Ukrainians estimate that one aircraft was destroyed and another severely damaged. Satellite imagery corroborates the Ukrainian assessments. The Ukrainian Defence Intelligence agency (GUR) posted satellite pictures in a post on its Telegram channel to support its claim, writing, “The images show that on June 7, Su-57 was still intact, but on June 8, craters from the explosion and distinctive fire spots emerged near it as a result of the fire damage.” The Su-57 is Russia’s most advanced airframe. The Su-57 is a supersonic, twin-engine, fifth-generation – though it may be more accurately described as a 4.5 generation – stealth fighter jet and was seen as Moscow’s answer to Western stealth jets like the US Air Force’s F-22 Raptor. The exact number of combat-ready Su-57s available to Russia’s air force is unclear. Flight Global’s “World Air Forces 2024” directory lists 14 Su-57s as active and another 62 as on order. “The Russian Aerospace Forces currently have only a limited number of these combat aircraft in service,” the GUR Telegram post said. Russian news outlet TASS reported in 2022 that Russian forces will receive a total of 22 Su-57s by the end of this year. The price of an Su-57 is estimated to be $35 million to $54 million, according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute. 

On Wednesday, the European Union said it would impose tariffs of up to 38 percent on electric vehicles imported from China starting in July. The increases, which are preliminary and will take effect on July 4, range from 17.4 percent to 38.1 percent for three of the leading Chinese manufacturers, including BYD, Geely and SAIC. The tariffs were calculated based on the level of cooperation with European officials, who have spent the past few months investigating the level of support from the Chinese government for these companies. Affected companies and the Chinese government will then have several days to weigh in. The commission would then have until November before the final tariffs went into force, for a period of five years. The move, the EU said, is an effort to protect European manufacturers from unfair competition. The statement refers to Chinese attempts to achieve market dominance in EV production through heavy subsidies of Chinese manufacturers. China has of course denied subsidising its industry in its usual amusing language – made more amusing by the fact everyone knows what they are doing. China decried the tariffs as lacking “factual and legal basis” that amounted to a “weaponizing economic and trade issues,” said He Yadong, a spokesman for the commerce ministry. “This is not in line with the consensus reached by Chinese and European leaders on strengthening cooperation, and will affect the atmosphere of bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Europe,” Mr. He said. The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 100 percent on Chinese electric vehicles. European automakers, dependent as they are on sales in the Chinese market, have criticised the tariffs as they fear increased Chinese tariffs on their own EVs. Before the announcement, China had warned that it could retaliate by raising tariffs on gas-powered cars imported from Europe, agricultural and aviation goods. China already applies a 15 percent duty on all electric vehicles imported from Europe. About 37 percent of all electric vehicles imported to Europe come from China, including cars made by Tesla, BMW and Dacia, owned by Renault. Chinese brands account for 19 percent of the European market for E.Vs. Their numbers have been growing steadily, according to a study by Rhodium Group. 

On Wednesday, the Biden administration levelled new financial sanctions against entities it says are helping Russia’s war effort. The actions were announced just as President Biden was leaving the country for a meeting in Italy of the Group of 7 industrialized economies, where a renewed push to degrade the Russian economy will be at the top of his agenda. The measures were coordinated by the Treasury, State and Commerce Departments. The aim is to interrupt the fast-growing technological links between China and Russia which enables Russia’s defence industry to manufacture the weapons it is using in Ukraine. The effort has grown far more complicated in the past six or eight months after China, which had previously sat largely on the sidelines, stepped up its shipments of microchips, machine tools, optical systems for drones and components for advanced weaponry, U.S. officials said. At a news conference in Prague on May 31, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said 70 percent of the machine tools that Russia is importing are coming from China, as well as 90 percent of microelectronics. So far Beijing appears to have heeded Biden’s warning against shipping weapons to Russia, even as the United States and NATO continue to arm Ukraine. Previous rounds of sanctions have been levied against Russia and have all failed to truly cut off Russia’s access to technology vital for its prosecution of the war in Ukraine. It seems likely this new round of sanctions will be more of the same. 

On Thursday, at the Group of 7 (G7) Summit in Apulia, Italy, the G7 agreed on a plan to give a $50 billion loan to Ukraine to help it buy weapons and rebuild damaged infrastructure. The loan is expected to be repaid using the interest earned on $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets that were frozen in Western countries, mostly Belgium. The loan will be underwritten by the U.S. but American officials said they expect their allies to provide some of the funds. President Biden also signed a 10-year security agreement with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Under the agreement, “the United States intends to provide assistance, advice, and training to build Ukraine’s defense and security capabilities, advance the reforms necessary to light Ukraine’s path toward EU accession and NATO membership, and bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base through co-production and joint ventures with U.S. industry.  The agreement furthers our goal of a secure, sovereign, and independent Ukraine that is integrated with the Euro-Atlantic community and militarily capable of defeating Russian aggression now and deterring it in the future,” according to a White House press release. The G7 also increasingly took aim at China – there are 28 references to China in the final G7 comminiqué, all of them describing China as a malign force. China is described as an intensifying threat in the South China Sea, a wayward economic actor which is dumping electric cars in Western markets and threatening to cut the supply of critical minerals used in high-tech industries. 

On Friday, President Vladimir V. Putin said in a video message that Russia is ready to order a ceasefire if Kiev withdraws all troops from the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow lays claim to – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and give up any intentions of joining NATO. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the goal of Putin’s statement was “to mislead the international community, undermine diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a just peace and split the unity of the world over the goals and principles of the United Nations Charter.” Putin made the remarks just a day before the Ukrainian-organised peace conference taking place in the Swiss Alps. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said Putin’s timing suggested that he was trying to undermine Ukraine’s diplomatic effort in Switzerland and showed that he is “afraid of a real peace.” Russian forces have continued their incremental battlefield gains and Putin appears to have renewed confidence in the Russian military’s ability to take more territory. Putin said later in the day that nearly 700,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine, an increase from the 617,000 he reported during an end-of-year press conference in 2023.

On Saturday, world leaders – not including Russia or China – gathered in the luxury Swiss Bürgenstock resort outside Lucerne for a two-day peace conference to discuss Kiev’s proposal for an end to the war in Ukraine along with the nuclear threat, food security and humanitarian needs. Representatives from more than 100 countries and organisations were present. Addressing the conference on Saturday, Zelenskyy said the proposal for ending the war would be submitted to Russia once it had been agreed by the other nations in attendance and there would then be a second peace summit, where “we can fix the real end of the war.” Zelenskyy’s plan includes demands for a cessation of hostilities, the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil and the restoration of Ukraine’s pre-war borders with Russia. Both Russia and Ukraine have publicly stated their maximalist demands. On Sunday, in a final communique issued at the end of the summit, the majority of countries represented also backed a call for the full exchange of captured soldiers and the return of deported Ukrainian children. “We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties,” the document stated. Kiev accuses Russia of abducting almost 20,000 children from parts of the east and south of the country that its forces took control of.