The World That Was

Adrian Olivier,

Sunday 12 May – Sunday 19 May:

On Monday, Ukrainian Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, Oleh Syniehubov, said Russian forces were widening their assault in his region as they tried to expand the front and stretch Ukrainian forces thin. He said Russian forces were attacking in small groups. In the northeast, Russia has been pushing in several directions, including near Vovchansk and also towards the village of Lyptsi,  Syniehubov added. The DeepState Telegram channel, which is close to the Ukrainian army, said Russia had taken territory of about 100sq km. The Ukrainian army acknowledged that Russia was “achieving tactical success”. Ukraine’s forces have been managing to hold Moscow’s troops back, but a real threat that the fighting could spread to new settlements remains, Syniehubov warned. Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its troops had “improved the tactical position and dealt a blow to [Ukrainian] manpower” around border villages, including Lyptsi and Vovchansk. “They are shelling the villages, firing everything they can,” Sergiy Kryvetchenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian military administration in Lyptsi, told the Agence France-Presse news agency. “The KABs [guided aerial bombs] are flying. The artillery is flying. Drones. Everything,” he added.

On Tuesday evening, the United States conducted a subcritical nuclear test in the Principal Underground Laboratory for Subcritical Experimentation facility at the Nevada National Security Site. This is the first test since September 2021, according to the U.S. Government’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). A subcritical nuclear test does not result in a nuclear explosion, but they are useful tests for upgrading nuclear weapons. The experiment, the third under the administration of President Joe Biden, was carried out in Nevada to collect “essential data” regarding the country’s nuclear warheads, according to the National Nuclear Security Administration. The NNSA, an arm of the U.S. Energy Department, said in a statement issued Thursday that it “relies on subcritical experiments to collect valuable information to support the safety, security, reliability and effectiveness of America’s nuclear warheads, without the use of nuclear explosive testing.” The United States suspended underground nuclear tests in 1992 and began subcritical nuclear tests five years later. As subcritical nuclear tests do not result in a nuclear explosion, the United States has asserted that they are not prohibited under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which the country has signed but not ratified. The NNSA also said the latest test, which brought the total number of U.S. subcritical tests to 34, did not form a self-sustaining, supercritical chain reaction and was therefore consistent with the country’s self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing in place since 1992. Tuesday’s test was the first in the “Nimble series,” carried out with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the NNSA said, adding it will continue the new cycle of experiments also with support from Los Alamos National Laboratory. “We plan to increase the frequency of these subcritical experiments so we can continue to gather important data on nuclear weapons materials, with no technical need for a return to underground nuclear explosive testing,” Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for the agency’s defence programs, said in the statement. Three rounds of subcritical nuclear tests were conducted under the administration of Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump and four rounds under the Barack Obama administration.

On Wednesday, there was an assassination attempt on Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico. It was in broad daylight that Mr Fico, surrounded by a crowd of supporters, was shot at close range. A gunman fired five times, hitting the prime minister in the stomach and arm. The attack took Mr Fico’s security detail completely by surprise. Footage showed several officers bundling the wounded PM into a car, before driving away at high speed, while the others detained the suspect. Mr Fico was rushed to a nearby hospital in an air ambulance, with injuries described as life-threatening. Fico survived his shooting but remains in hospital in critical condition. The Slovakian government said the attempt was a politically motivated “lone wolf” attack by a 71-year-old man. According to those who know him, the man identified as Juraj C, has been described as cranky and resentful. He also wrote dark erotic poetry featuring torture and pain. He also self-published a book that railed against Roma (Gypsy) people and asked why Slovakia had not produced a homegrown version of Anders Behring Breivik, the Norwegian terrorist. 

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to China’s capital Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two vowed to deepen their strategic partnership, and took aim at a United States they painted as a destabilizing aggressor and proclaimed that “Russian-Chinese relations stand the test of rapid changes in the world, demonstrating strength and stability, and are experiencing the best period in their history.” Xi and Putin used their meetings and a joint statement to take aim at what they described as a global security system defined by US-backed military alliances – and pledged to work together to counter it. “[We] intend to increase interaction and tighten coordination in order to counter Washington’s destructive and hostile course towards the so-called ‘dual containment’ of our countries,” the leaders pledged in their joint statement. While slamming US military alliances, the two leaders pledged to “deepen” military “trust and cooperation,” saying they would expand joint exercises and combat training, regularly conduct joint sea and air patrols, and improve the “capabilities and level of joint response to challenges and threats.” Putin also travelled to Beijing with newly appointed Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and his predecessor Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu. The two joined informal talks on Ukraine. Despite the wording of the joint statement, Putin likely did not get much of what he came for, though it’s unknown if there were agreements signed which were not made public. No announcement was made regarding the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which Putin wants to replace the revenues lost from European customers over the war in Ukraine. Instead, the leaders in broad strokes pledged to “jointly promote the implementation of large-scale energy projects,” while upping energy cooperation across oil, liquified natural gas, natural gas, coal and electricity.

On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law a bill allowing some Ukrainian convicts to serve in the country’s military in exchange for the possibility of parole at the end of their service. The move shows Kiev’s desperate shortage of troops. Despite the desperate situation, it was unclear whether Zelenskyy would sign the bill into law given the sensitivity of the matter – and comparisons with Russian use of prisoners in their army, which Ukraine has ridiculed. But Ukraine is now ceding territory to advancing Russian forces and the Ukrainian military urgently needs to increase the number of troops on the more than 1,000km front line if it is to prevent Russia from breaking through its defenses. Ukrainian officials have said the measure could allow up to 20,000 prisoners to be mobilized.

On Friday, Zelenskyy rejected a call by French President Emmanuel Macron for a truce in the war during the Summer Olympic Games in Paris. Speaking in an interview, Zelenskyy said any suspension of hostilities would only serve Russia which would seek to press its military advantage. “Let’s be honest … Emmanuel, I don’t believe it,” Zelenskyy said. “Who can guarantee that Russia will not use this time to bring its forces to our territory?” he asked. “We are against any truce that plays into the hands of the enemy,” Zelenskyy said, vowing to keep fighting. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin told state media that he had discussed the idea of an Olympic truce with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Asked if he would support the idea, Putin reportedly responded with a criticism of Western sports authorities. 

On Saturday, Poland announced plans to invest €2.3 billion to bolster security along its eastern border with Russia and Belarus. “We will invest 10 billion zlotys (€2.3 billion) in the security of our border with Belarus and Russia,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. “We have begun these works, to make Poland’s border a safe one in times of peace, and impenetrable for an enemy in times of war,” he said. Tusk on May 11 said Poland is facing a “hybrid war” in illegal immigration from Belarus, the Polish Press Agency reported. “There will be no limit of funds when it comes to the security of Poland,” he said. 

On Sunday, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed on its return flight from the border region with Azerbaijan. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was also reportedly on board the aircraft. Vice President Mohsen Mansouri said contact was made with one of the helicopter passengers and one of the flight crew after the accident, although connection had frequently been interrupted. State media reported Raisi’s helicopter needed to make a “hard landing” and was involved in an incident close to the city of Jolfa, on Iran’s northwestern border with Azerbaijan. Raisi was returning from a visit to the Azerbaijan border, where he met with President Ilham Aliyev. The pair cut the ribbon on a major dam along their shared border. On Sunday evening, Aliyev issued a statement saying he was “deeply troubled” by the news. “As a neighbour, friend, and brotherly country, the Republic of Azerbaijan stands ready to offer any assistance needed.” Rescuers are unable to fly over the mountainous area of dense woods and steep valleys because of thick fog, so search parties are going out by foot, helped by dogs, drones and European Union satellites. Raisi is often seen as a potential successor to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If Raisi were to die, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, would likely be increasingly mentioned as the frontrunner for the country’s top job. With Iranian officials saying the incident is serious and calls by the state broadcaster to pray for the president, it’s possible he may already be dead.