The Week That Was

Gerald Potash,

Hello again, 

I really wasn’t going to write a newsletter this week and was going to advise that the 3Ms are here with us from London this week, so I would be taking a short break. I forgot to add a PS last Thursday so here I am again. 

We have been running around with the 3 of them, hotel-hopping and enjoying their energy enormously.  They really are a wonderful tonic for the world champion and me.

This week has delivered one of the most important political projections in the more than 30 years of ANC dominance. For the first time the DA, according to a SAIRR (SA Institute of Race Relations) poll has gone ahead of the ANC. These polls are scientifically based and are authoritative.  Hermann Pretorius calls this result a ‘political earthquake’.  Last week the results of the poll showed a swing to the DA of more than 18% of black voters from a previous support of about 5% in the last general election.  This would mean that the final estimate would leave the DA slightly ahead of the ANC in the next election with just over 30% of the vote, with the ANC at 29.7%.  Pretorius explains that the migration of so many blacks from rural to urban areas, the attitude of the ANC to the proposed  VAT increase budget and the schooling of more children, has all contributed in its own way to this shift in the proposed vote.

The Brenthurst Foundation very recently reported that most voters in their targeted poll were strongly in favour of the GNU.  The Social Research Foundation found that while most voters still favour the ANC that would change should Ramaphosa be removed from office.

As you can see……..things are a-changing!

What is becoming more and more obvious is that the ANC is on the brink of splitting up. Ramaphosa’s internal opposition is coming from his deputy, Paul Mashatile and Panyaza Lesufi, the Premier of Gauteng.  They both are vehemently against the GNU and want nothing to do with the DA.  They have a strong supporter in Julius Malema who, no doubt would be asked to join with them should they manage to rest the power in the ANC.  They are all communists. Should a split evolve in the majority party or even if Ramaphosa was to go and they were to take over, the results for this country will be disastrous.  I predict, that in such an event that the Rand would then drop like a stone down a well. Our current dismal situation will be magnified, especially if they take over before the next general election. 

You may recall that neither Thabi Mbeki nor Jacob Zuma served out their full term of office as leader of the ANC when they served as President of this country.  Dropping Cyril is quite likely with our history.  I never thought that I would oppose the getting rid of Cyril but if this scenario unfolds, I would. 

I must just add that the Sec Gen of the ANC, Fikile Mbalula also fancies the Presidency for himself. It will be interesting to see which “faction” will will prevail should Ramaphosa go.

The VAT increase as proposed in the budget is still not a done deal and daily it is in the news. Two important matters that have come to the fore are the fact that we have 43 Deputy Ministers together with our 34 cabinet Ministers. Too many and they cost too much.  When Cyril took over he indicated that the bloated cabinet was too big but now he doesn’t think so. 

Their cost is colossal. 

The government spent R3.4 billion on foreign missions in the financial year ending March 2024. That is simply ridiculous.  If the ANC would simply cut unnecessary spending and costs we wouldn’t need to increase VAT. In fact, VAT could then be decreased significantly.  The VAT increase hurts the poorest of the poor, most.

Our GDP is slipping. The Reserve Bank has warned that the Rand is under severe pressure and the trade war with the USA is likely to hurt us even more, unless we can restore relations with the largest economy in the world.

I nodded sadly when I saw this cartoon from DavidToons in the Daily Friend this week:

Mcebisi Jonas, a one time deputy Min of Finance, who was opposed to Jacob Zuma’s maladministration during his Presidency and who was a state capture whistle blower, has been appointed by Ramaphosa as SA’s special envoy to the United States. He is not appointed as Ambassador for this country but rather he has the difficult job to do to try to advance SA’s diplomatic, trade and bilateral attitudes.

Jonas, however in 2020 in an address called Trump a dangerous populist (an insult) and this won’t be received well in America. Then, the fact whereas Jonas may well be competent and business-wise (he serves as Chairman of MTN, one of our largest cellular networks) he will have to tread very carefully especially since MTN is embroiled in a legal battle in New York. It has to do with the Anti-Terrorism Act where MTN is seen to have supported Iran and their terorist groups.                              Martin Williams, writing in in The Citizen yesterday believes that this is a very poor juice of appointment from Ramaphosa.

On the same tack, the Burger yesterday believes that the old video of Jonas, now doing the rounds on social media, calling out Trump as a racist and homophobe will count negatively with the American administration. Will he follow Ebrhahim Rasool our recently disgraced expelled Ambassador and be shown the door?

This is how Brandan in yesterday’s Business Day sees Jonas’ appointment:

Early this month a three-party delegation (DA,  ACDP,  & PA) went on a fact-finding mission to Israel. They went to observe the real situation there.  Also on the week-long trip were religious Christian & Jewish leaders. They came back and let it be known that there is no apartheid in that country and in fact,  Israel is a vibrant multi-racial and multi-ethnic society where all citizens are protected by the rule of law.  This news has not pleased the ANC or the EFF at all.  

Some good news is that in the last book-year our Justice department has dismissed 54 for fraud, corruption and other like offences. At last we are also seeing some ANC cadres with big-shots standing trial.  Ace Magashule, one-time Free State Premier and then Sec General of the ANC is in the dock with “tenderpreneur” Edwin Sodi and other ANC big-shots in the ‘Asbestos roof’ trial where officials were paid with funds (R255 million) meant to eliminate 300,000 asbestos roofs in poor township areas in the Free State.

This year Cape Town International Airport has won more awards.  Skytracks World Airport Awards ranked CTIA the best airport in Africa, the cleanest airport in Africa and having the best staff in Africa.

Some more good news is that the price of petrol and diesel is going down again and some bad news; it looks as if we had better get ready for load-shedding again. Eskom has warned that it may not be able to keep the lights on as previously hoped.

Spurs lost badly again (their 17th league loss this season) and they play tonight in Frankfurt needing a win to progress, but I won’t be watching.  The Ikeys beat the Maties very convincingly in Stellenbosch on Monday evening to take the Varsity Cup.

As always,

Gerald