Will Keys,
In an article published on Africaunauthorised.com, titled The Art of the Deal, I quoted President Donald Trump (POTUS Trump) and his ostensibly genuine desire to broker a settlement in the Ukraine war.
I wrote:
“I humbly caution POTUS Trump not to drop the ball.”
Any successful agreement—one that will satisfy the test of time—can only arise if POTUS Trump accepts the facts of realpolitik and the military reality on the ground. The Russians are in a favourable position, and it would be a grave mistake for POTUS Trump to think that he can dominate the situation. President Putin is a highly intelligent man who cannot be bullied. This conflict has deep historical roots that must be understood and acknowledged.
Historical Context
Ukraine’s position has long been precarious, caught between East and West. The Crimean Peninsula, seized by Russia in 2014 following a controversial referendum, has been a flashpoint since Catherine the Great’s 18th-century expansion southward. The Donbas region, home to a significant ethnic Russian population, has simmered with separatist sentiment since the collapse of the Soviet Union. More broadly, the competing visions of NATO expansion versus Russian security concerns echo the 19th-century Great Game and Cold War spheres of influence.
Russian demands to be accepted in toto:
- (a) The Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson provinces be recognised as part of the Russian Federation.
(b) NATO withdraws from Ukraine, with no intention of returning.
(c) The Ukrainian military be limited in size, equipment, and numbers.
(d) Nazi elements in Ukraine be disbanded.
(e) Frozen Russian bank assets be released in toto.
(f) The US agrees to cease interference in the Belt & Road Project.
(g) All sanctions against Russia be lifted.
(h) Miscellaneous prisoner releases and exchanges take place.
We advise POTUS Trump to accept all without much argument.
American demands to be accepted in toto:
2. (a) Russia agrees not to object to the US securing Greenland as a US state.
(b) Russia to help facilitate a peaceful treaty in the Middle East.
(c) Commercial and economic activity in Ukraine be fostered.
(d) Russia does not unduly interfere in the US Panama Canal takeover.
(e) Russia accepts a reconciliation scheme in Ukraine.
(f) Russia accepts a private settlement for the Nord Stream pipeline.
(g) Miscellaneous prisoner releases and exchanges take place.
We advise President Putin to accept all without much argument.
The Ukrainian government agrees:
3. (a) To accept the preconditions in (1) and (2).
(b) Move towards free and fair elections without outside interference.
(c) The USA and European Union facilitate post-conflict economic aid.
(d) International assistance in the return of the Ukrainian diaspora.
I advise Ukraine to accept all the above without much argument.
Of course, POTUS Trump was never going to accept my advice—he doesn’t even know that I exist.
Months later, and because the type of sentiments contained in my advice were not considered, we now see the US Administration being manipulated by neoconservatives such as Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn). We watch in utter amazement and horror as Ukraine takes responsibility for a ‘Pearl Harbour’ type attack known as Operation SpiderWeb—an operation with the potential to ignite World War III.
If Graham or Blumenthal were aware of or had notice of SpiderWeb, then they are treacherous traitors to the United States and must face prosecution. If POTUS was aware and stood aside, then as MAGA supporters, we must re-examine our confidence in him.
The Russians will now ruthlessly occupy all of eastern Ukraine—that is to say, all land east of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be crushed, captured, killed, or forced into exile. After such treachery, the Russians will stop all negotiations with Ukraine and achieve their purpose. Sadly, but foreseeably, there is nothing the USA can do about it.
A Historical Parallel
This unfolding tragedy brings to mind the lessons of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918, when a weakened Russia was forced to cede vast territories to Germany—proof that military and geographic realities ultimately dictate diplomatic outcomes. Likewise, today’s realpolitik dictates that unless the West recognises the limits of its reach, the map of Eastern Europe will again be redrawn by force.
Conclusion
The moral of this tale is one that echoes throughout history: to secure a durable peace, both sides must recognise the immovable facts of power and geography. The United States, in its present posture, appears to have forgotten this timeless lesson.
Kind regards,
Will Keys
Discover more from Africa Unauthorised
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Anyone who believes Greenland should become a US State is delusional. Do you also agree that Canada should become our 51st state?
Trump and his shower of you- know-what followers are merrily marching us to a nuclear showdown led by our REAL puppet masters, Bibi Netanyahu and the terrorist Zionist anti semitic state of Israel.
No, I’m not a commie or woke, whatever that crap is. I’ve lived in Orange County California for 37 years, a bastion of conservatism for the most part.
If you want to see the modern day commie, look no further than the Trump Republicans if you can even call them that.
Let’s see what so called deal he is going to come up with. He’ll get schooled by Putin. The latter plays chess while Trump can barely figure out the rules of draughts or checkers.
With Respect,
Anthony in beautiful Orange County, California.
Oh dear. Anthony, your reply regarding Greenland and Canada choosing US statehood with ignorant comments about Israel; the GOP and Trump, is simply vacuous . You don’t even know the difference between a commie and a woke person? I have been to Orange County, California, it was respectable and typically middle-class America.
I see that Ukraine have followed up on Spiderweb by severely damaging that strategic bridge that they have hit twice before. Another thing, Putin has lost 4,000 tanks to Ukrainian firepower. Not bad for a country casually written off by “we.”
Another Oh! Dear. Your ignorance is obvious tp all.
I hear a voice from Australia. (Kept that quiet, didn’t you!)
Engineering specs are available for said bridge. It was overbuilt by a factor of five. There was minor damage to one of the pylons, but insignificant with regard to its load capacity. That was a structural engineer’s analysis, not whooping and hollering by a propaganda department.
Hi Reziac, we agree and take you at your word.
Thanks for sharing your cogent thoughts on the Ukraine issue. It is tragic that America has been sucked into this mess. We continue to hope and pray that something like the solution you suggest is adopted sooner rather than later. It is the “Most” that we can do!
Hi Michael, thank you for the intelligent reply. As you know we are pro USA and we love traditional Americans values. The US Constitution was a creation of social-science geniuses. The Australian Federal Constitution is based upon the US constitution but weirdly under a Westminter system? Go figure. The US Deep State & MIC pulled a malicious trick. Apparently, aided by neocons like Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D – Conn) and the Ukrainian government they executed operation Spiderweb and risked another world war. US politicians breached the US Logan Act. POTUS has been obliged to to eat humble pie in a long telephone meeting with President Vladymir Putin. We urge continued support for DJT and his Administration. At the same time the criminals exposed above MUST be removed from office.
You need help. You live in a fantasy world where your imagination has access to all the important people, giving you an inside track on world affairs.
Must be the heat of the Australian sun that brings on your regular bouts of delusion.
Lie down in a dark room; things will improve.
GGS
FBTN
“We.” Who are we, and why should world powers listen to “we”?
Errol, ‘we the people’ and the world powers should listen to ‘we the people’.
The presumption being that “we, the people” are the majority. By what method has that been calculated?
GGS
Will,
You are NOT ‘We the People.’
You live in Australia. Despite what MAGA has told you, you do not live in the US and cannot lay claim to that title like a mining claim.That title is reserved for us who do.
Anthony, in Australia “we the people want to make Australia Great Again”. Don’t be an ignoramus.
I think your delusions are getting the better of you.
Anthony! Thanks for that; I hadn’t realised that this guy lives in Australia!
Rather like the British who live in Malaga, Spain, and pontificate on the politics of the UK, getting very upset when told to shut up.
Comfortable armchair critics…..a self-satisfied breed.
Lol. Don’t underestimate his value as a standup comic. I wonder who writes his jokes?
Yes. What one might call,
“A legend in his lunch hour. Whistling in the winds of his mind and lapsing into humming as he forgets the next words.”
GGS
Outstanding and appropriate article. Internationally; Trump is showing the sad traits of a bullying “Paper Tiger” – says me an ardent conservative, currently enjoying the beating being suffered by the democrats in the USA, brought upon them by their blind largesse and naive stupidity and Trumps MAGA rhetoric..
Hi John, thank you. I haven’t given-up on POTUS Trump yet, but his CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, had better pull the out-of-control and disloyal elements of the CIA into line.
US Foreign Policy that is high-jacked by rogue elements of the US Intelligence Services / MIC (MI6) are committing acts of treachery and treason.
The neutering of USAID should be somewhat helpful, given it is mostly a CIA slush fund. (Hence the utterly nonsensical “programs” like gay theatre in Afghanistan.)
As is necessary for any sort of agreement in Ukraine, your proposals reflect the reality on the ground.
Hi Reziac, you may be right about the CIA. In my opinion the USAID scandal is down to US Deep State bureaucrats corrupted over time and by nonexistent Congressional oversight. The US Intelligence Agency manipulations must have playede a part. The Democrat Party and to a lesser extent elements of the GOP also were involoved. The latest accusations of corruption, $20 million bribe, vis-a-vis Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Ukraine must be transparent. There is much vicious power-play being being dispensed in DC. The Democrats and those corrupt GOP have covered themselves in infamy.