Stagnation Malawi

By Andrew Field

When the votes were counted, Malawi’s electorate chose the stable and well-trodden over the perhaps untested and experimental.  This is a hallmark of southern African politics.  Arthur Mutharika, now 85, clinched a first‑round victory, reclaiming the presidency he had lost just five years earlier. His comeback is striking; not only because of his age, but also because the campaign was dominated by fatigue, economic hardship, and a growing sense that democracy was drifting.

The run‑up to the poll was a parade of familiar names. Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera, under the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) banner, went to the ballot sans the coalition that had propelled him to power in 2020. The Tonse Alliance (a political coalition in Malawi formed ahead of the 2020 presidential election rerun), once a banner of unity, had splintered. The United Transformation Movement (UTM) fell apart after the tragic death of its leader, Vice‑President Saulos Chilima, in a plane crash.

Joyce Banda resurfaced with her People’s Party and former deputy Khumbo Kachali, yet the lingering memory of the ‘Cashgate’[1] scandal shadowed her campaign. Atupele Muluzi, son of former president Bakili Muluzi, pitched digital governance and generational change, while technocrat Dalitso Kabambe tried to inherit Chilima’s urban‑youth base despite a contentious record at the Reserve Bank. None succeeded in capturing the public imagination.

A deteriorating economy weighed down Chakwera’s platform. Inflation surged to 33 %; fuel and food shortages became commonplace, and a botched International Monetary Fund (IMF) program left the nation’s finances in tatters. Fertiliser prices soared from K20,000 (under Mutharika) to K170,000, while the government’s half‑price rescue of leftover stock arrived too late. Sugar exports were halted to curb domestic queues; and cement, briefly imported from Zambia, was quickly rationed amid fears of unrest. Even routine paperwork (passports, driver’s licences, national IDs) became hard to obtain, tangled in accusations of corruption.

Corruption in Malawi remains a deeply entrenched challenge, undermining public trust, economic development, and democratic accountability. Despite periodic crackdowns and high-profile arrests, systemic issues persist across government procurement, public service delivery, and political patronage.  Cashgate remains a prime example. Institutions tasked with oversight—such as the Anti-Corruption Bureau—often face political interference, resource constraints, or selective enforcement.  While civil society and the judiciary have shown resilience, meaningful reform has been slow, and impunity remains a central obstacle to progress.

Chakwera’s signature promise “a baby trust fund payable at age 18”, was mocked and quietly abandoned. In its stead came lofty cash‑handout pledges: K10 million for 10,000 citizens and K1 million for a million others.  Vote-buying on credit is certainly unique! Running mate Vitumbiko Mumba blamed opposition‑aligned traders for price hikes, but most voters saw little relief.

The president’s silence on corruption rang loudly; the Anti‑Corruption Bureau was gutted, its director’s contract allowed to lapse, and its acting head was accused of targeting political rivals. Vice‑President MichaelUsi, appointed after Chilima’s death, publicly denounced the administration as “full of thieves,” prompting swift reprisal from within the ruling party.

Against this bleak backdrop, Mutharika’s campaign gained momentum. He pledged K5 billion for each of the 228 constituencies and K100 million in loans for youth and women in every parliamentary seat, while promising free primary and secondary education. The gullible responded. His track record; stable currency, easier access to foreign exchange, cheaper maize, fertiliser and fuel; stood in stark contrast to Chakwera’s economic turmoil. Even in former MCP strongholds, crowds gathered for Mutharika, a dramatic reversal from 2020 when he was jeered and pelted with stones.

President Lazarus Chakwera formally conceded defeat in Malawi’s 2025 presidential election, clearing the path for the official declaration of results by the Malawi Electoral Commission. With over 99% of votes counted, Peter Mutharika holds a commanding lead, having secured more than 2.13 million votes (approximately 66.7% of the valid ballots tallied) placing him well above the threshold required for an outright win.

Chakwera’s concession, delivered ahead of the final announcement, was framed as a constitutional duty and a gesture of respect for the electorate’s will. The High Court has dismissed attempts to block the release of results, and the MEC is expected to confirm Mutharika’s victory imminently. Civil society leaders and former President Bakili Muluzi have praised Chakwera’s statesmanship, while observers note the largely peaceful public response despite persistent allegations of vote manipulation and economic hardship.

The Malawi Electoral Commission recorded 7.2 million registered voters (well below the projected 10 million eligible) and confirmed that approximately 3.7 million cast ballots, placing turnout at just over 51%. This marks a significant decline from previous elections, underscoring growing public disengagement.

An Afrobarometer survey conducted in 2024 had already warned of waning trust in democratic institutions, and the subdued participation appears to reflect that erosion. Despite the peaceful conduct of polling day, the numbers suggest that many Malawians are increasingly sceptical of the political process and its capacity to deliver meaningful change.

Now here is the ‘surprising’ twist. Post-election tensions in Malawi have escalated amid allegations of vote manipulation and procedural irregularities.  So what is new?  Eight data clerks were arrested in Lilongwe for alleged vote tampering with results, following a suspected suicide attempt by a returning officer. The MCP has challenged outcomes in over a dozen districts, citing anomalies in tallying and transmission.

Media blackouts during result broadcasts and mutual accusations between the MCP and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have further fuelled public distrust. While the Malawi Electoral Commission insists on procedural integrity, civil society groups are calling for independent audits to safeguard democratic legitimacy and prevent a repeat of the 2019 crisis.

Malawi’s economy remains fragile. GDP growth is projected at 3.8 % in 2025, driven largely by mining and retail, but agriculture, the sector that still employs most of the population, continues to lag. Despite billions spent on input subsidies, yields stay low, and reliance on rain‑fed farming leaves the country exposed to climate shocks. Conservation agriculture is gaining traction and maize yields have risen in pockets, yet without sharper targeting and stronger private‑sector involvement, reforms risk becoming mere political theatre.

Security is another growing worry. While Malawi has avoided direct terrorist attacks, partly thanks to the natural water barriers, the insurgency in neighbouring Mozambique is inching closer. In April 2025, IS‑Mozambique militants launched a savage raid on a hunting camp in Niassa Province, killing staff and razing infrastructure. Niassa shares a porous, forested border with Malawi’s southern region (south of Lake Malawi), raising the spectre of spill‑over; whether through refugee flows, radicalisation, or cross‑border raids.

Malawi’s Muslim population is estimated at 13.8% according to the 2018 census, though some organisations claim up to 20%.  People of this faith are mainly concentrated in the Southern Region, especially among the Yao ethnic group, who have deep historical ties to Islam through Swahili-Arab trade routes.  Given Malawi’s geographic proximities and its own socio-economic vulnerabilities, there is a genuine strategic concern that jihadist ideology could seep across borders, not necessarily through religious affinity, but via grievance-based recruitment, especially among marginalised youth.  The risk lies not in faith, but in fragility.

The government has responded with heightened border patrols and a new National Strategy for Countering Terrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism. A Special Law Commission is revising counter‑terrorism statutes, and Malawi is cooperating with SADC’s regional security framework. These steps are sensible, but the threat is no longer hypothetical; it sits just across the frontier.

Politically, the electorate opted for stability over change, familiarity over experimentation. Mutharika’s return may soothe markets and reassure traditional constituencies, yet it does little to bridge the generational gap or fix deep governance flaws. Youth, who constitute the bulk of the population, remain politically marginalised. Their energy and frustration could either spark renewal or fuel unrest.

Regionally, Malawi’s outcome mirrors a broader African trend of anti‑incumbent sentiment. Voters punish governments for economic mismanagement and corruption, but they do not necessarily embrace fresh leadership. The dearth of compelling alternatives has led to the recycling of political elites; a pattern evident in Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa. Malawi’s peaceful transition is commendable, but its democratic stagnation serves as a cautionary tale.

Democracy is more than periodic elections; it demands renewal, something clearly lacking across the region. It requires institutions that nurture new leaders, parties that evolve (especially from liberation mindsets), and a civic culture that prizes ideas over boring personalities. Malawi has proved it can vote, uphold procedures and avoid violence. Yet it has also shown that without vision, as it is in many African countries, democracy becomes a ritual rather than a remedy.

Malawi has weathered its storms, but now faces a real test of imagination.  Somehow, it seems that the test may not be answered and dithering stagnation may persist.  The nation, like most of southern Africa, needs dynamic leadership to cross the Rubicon. Only time will tell if the nation leaps forward or remains in its proverbial rut; looping back on old times and stale ideas.  Change hinges on the collective courage to build something new, but perhaps Malawi is too set in its torpid old ways.

[1] Cashgate: refers to the massive corruption scandal uncovered in Malawi in 2013, involving the looting of public funds through fraudulent payments and ghost contracts. The scandal exposed systemic weaknesses in financial controls and implicated senior government officials, leading to donor aid suspensions and a reckoning in Malawi’s governance landscape.