Will Keys,

In the foreseeable future, significant changes are expected to occur in the relative influences exerted by countries upon one another. In this essay, I will refer to these influences as “tiers of influence” rather than the outdated classification of “first, second, or third world” countries.

I define a first-tier country as one that directly influences its neighbours or indirectly exerts influence through proxies in international relations. Let us begin with the first tier and work backward.

China is currently engaged in constructing and completing the Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the “Silk Road,” which aims to connect Europe. While they have successfully connected with Russia, achieving peace in Ukraine becomes crucial for the project’s completion. This project presents exceptional commercial opportunities and is likely to change the perspectives of the European Union (EU). As a result, China will undergo liberalisation while the EU moves towards more conservative values, which can be seen as a positive development.

In the future, China will dominate in areas of mass productivity, industrialization, and commercialism. The standard of living in China will continue to improve, leading to a desire to follow US trends and political practices. Fortunately, China benefits from a predominantly high-intelligence population. However, it will increasingly face criticism from an unreasonable, embarrassing, and indulged younger generation. This consequence can be attributed to China’s former “one-child policy.”

The United States (US) will remain a superpower by default but will no longer possess the level of influence it once had. The US dollar will be compelled to share the international stage with at least two other currencies. The repeated dilution of the US dollar through reckless money printing (quantitative easing) has diminished its value.  It will lose its status as the sole global currency.

In terms of military prowess and capacity, both the US and China will be recognized, but the US is likely to maintain its advantage in technical innovation, artistic exceptionalism, and scientific inventions. US tertiary academia will likely uphold its excellent reputation. On a per capita basis, the US may lead in prosperity among the majority of first-tier countries. Unfortunately, the US will be hindered by a significant proportion of its population having a low intelligence quotient.

Fortunately, if former President Donald J. Trump is reelected in 2024, the corruption and breaches of the US Constitution will be addressed in the courts, restoring true justice in the country. Additionally, Elon Musk’s innovative contributions will stimulate the US economy and position the nation as a global leader in technology and prosperity.

Regarding Ukraine, Russia will emerge victorious and have the opportunity to occupy the whole of Ukraine with little resistance. Ideally, Russia would prefer to negotiate a final peaceful settlement if a reliable partner for negotiations can be found. In all likelihood, Russia will retain control of everything east of the Dnieper River. Alternatively, Ukraine may be fully absorbed into Russia. Unfortunately, the neocons and corrupt individuals within the Biden administration cannot rectify the situation due to the blind faith and joint criminality of the Ukrainians. A plaque will be erected to commemorate the senseless loss of life on both sides in this foolish war.  NATO and the US will stand condemned. 

Russia stands to benefit greatly from the Belt and Road Initiative, leading to a significant rise in the standard of living. Diplomatic relations between an invigorated Russia and the West will remain strained. Russia will maintain a peaceful stance but will be recognized as a capable military power. Nobody will want to provoke the bear again.

India will reap exceptional advantages due to its intelligent approach in dealing with Russia and China regarding the Ukraine Special Military Operation (SMO). Furthermore, India will benefit greatly from the Silk Road project. The standard of living in India will experience significant growth. However, being the world’s largest democracy, India will face internal challenges at the ballot box.

Due to its population, economy, and capacity, India will be acknowledged as a superpower. It maintains a substantial standing army but does not engage in a competitive race with the US or Russia concerning the size of its nuclear arsenals and delivery systems. India is renowned for setting an example to the world in terms of diplomacy and common sense. Increased prosperity in India has encouraged education and has led to a cautious approach to family planning. Asian countries are about to face the consequences of declining populations, and India will eventually confront this prospect. Decreased populations can potentially lead to disaster.

Countries such as Japan, Australia, Canada, and Israel are closely aligned with the US, socially and politically. They outwardly claim first-tier status primarily due to their reliable proxy votes as US allies. Their indirect influence allows them to be considered first tier, but without close companionship with the US, they would be second tier.

In my opinion, the United Kingdom (UK), currently classified as first tier, is likely to slip into the second tier. The UK is not as popular as it once was and portrays an image of tardy perfidiousness, embodying a less trustworthy mentality. The once powerful “City of London” succumbed to pressure from its government and compromised its sacred fiduciary responsibilities. It assisted the corrupt US Biden administration in seizing the liquid assets of certain Russian clients. Regardless of personal opinion, these asset seizures tarnished the reputation of “The City” as a reliable banking centre. Thirty percent of UK profits are derived from laundering money through the City, but this lucrative practice is coming to an end.

Several once powerful first-tier countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, are part of the bloated bureaucracy of the European Union (EU) and NATO. The EU, with its headquarters in Brussels, is increasingly seen as a toothless tiger. The EU is  finding itself unpopular and isolated.  Many of their governments are likely to be voted out of office, resulting in their countries being demoted to the second tier, based on global public opinion.

Some third-tier countries like Iran, Brazil, and Indonesia may ascend to the second tier based on their productivity and sizable populations. However, countries like South Africa and Nigeria are unlikely to make a significant global impact and are likely to remain in the third tier.

The Scandinavian countries can be considered to be proxy second tier, this is due to their close alignment with the US.  However, Finland, due to its ill-advised entry into NATO, might fall into the third tier.

One cannot form a complete understanding without considering the numerous outliers present. There exist influential families, such as the Rothschilds, who manipulate affairs discreetly. The same can be said for political dynasties that pass power down through generations. Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, belonging to the House of Saud, not only holds the title of the guardian of the Muslim Holy Places but also wields significant influence. The 29th Sultan and Yang di-Pertuan of Brunei, as well as the leaders in the United Arab Emirates, are also formidable influencers who should not be disregarded.

Turkey and Poland have caught my attention as potential future superpowers. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the 12th President of Turkey, demonstrates shrewd political acumen and a survival instinct driven by paranoia. Turkey has displayed astuteness by cautiously navigating the precarious situation between Russia and the US amidst the Ukraine crisis. Although Turkey is a member of NATO, it may come to regret its involvement, as it sometimes feels that NATO behaves more like an adversary than an ally. On the other hand, Poland, led by President Andrzej Sebastian Duda, must mature and develop further. The country has endured significant turmoil in recent history, leaving it somewhat disoriented. Presently, Poland is experiencing success and a period of stability. However, its immature approach, particularly in dealings with Russia, may hinder its progress and impede its growth. Poland and Ukraine can be likened to unruly teenagers, with one confined and the other being encouraged to join in.

Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore is an individual who left an indelible mark on the global stage and garnered universal respect in the West. Singapore, under Lee’s leadership, is often cited as a prime example of effective governance. When Lee Kuan Yew passed away, he left behind a modest estate. However, his true legacy lies in the demonstration of restrained power, respect for the Constitution, and fostering harmonious racial relations in a small, multiethnic country. Singapore is widely admired and esteemed by all.

There is another aspect of international affairs that sheds light on the darker side. It is crucial to recognize that South American and Mexican Drug Cartels exert significant influence over the City of London. I have discussed this extensively in my forthcoming book. Illegitimate dictatorships, including North Korea and various others worldwide, emerge due to the dominance of oppressive forces, establishing a hierarchy through brute force. Once this pecking order is established, it rapidly devolves into a dictatorship. The fourth and fifth tiers of leadership are primarily composed of such dictatorships.

The formidable coalition of military-industrial complex (MIC) entities, which former President Dwight D. Eisenhower cautioned the world about during his tenure as the 34th POTUS, is commonly referred to as “The Deep State” in the United States. This entity is a powerful force that appears to have exceeded the limitations imposed by the US Constitution. The 45th POTUS, Donald J. Trump, found himself embroiled in a fierce conflict with this formidable force. The outcome of the upcoming 2024 presidential election will undoubtedly have significant implications for the ongoing battle between Trump and the MIC. It is a matter that concerns us all, and many hope that Trump will be reelected as POTUS in 2024.

16 thoughts on “The Big, BIG Picture”
  1. Nice article Will;
    I cannot disagree with with your assessment of the US right now and their need to have a Man, like Trump (Albeit he’s an arrogant twat at times and needs a good speaker someone like Trey Gordey or Ted Kennedy) to bring back some sanity to this WOKE (BGLQB what, what, what wankers? what ever that is) nation calling themselves the United States Of America. They are more ununited since Bidens and his useless bunch of Left wing cronies took over and be careful, that theres not another internal revolution should 2024 find Biden or Harris back.
    I also fully agree that Putin will and should stay the stay in Ukraine. NATO were warned what would happen 14 years ago and then again later, but not to worry, Rhamaphosa and his body guards (LOL) are there to bring some peace. Zelenski is without doubt Biden puppet and hides a lot of corruption under his and Hunters sleeve, from the past and going forward with all Bidens wasteful tax payers money pouring into Ukraine. The truth will prevail and be aware, BRICKS are expanding in every respect with now 18 members part of the Bricks Bank so when the crunch comes, its going to be a bloody mess and a real West against East, and, in the middle, Africa have already decided who’s side they on.
    Take care, head down and lets keep dreaming the impossible dream.

    1. Hi Rossi and Rhodie, I agree with your general assessment. The US electorate can MAGA or go the Woke route to disaster.
      The Democrats fear Donald J.Trump and are doing everything they can to destroy him. We had better hope they fail. I remain a loyal Trumpster and MAGA movement supporter. I have to say that never in my wildest dreams would I have foreseen some sympathy for Russia against NATO and US in Ukraine. Like most ex-Rhodie’s, it was anathema to our beliefs, but we’re also not ignoramuses.
      The poor stupid Ukrainians, like the poor stupid Rhodesians, were led down the proverbial garden path by greater powers. I researched what happened and I’ve been writing about it. I will die believing that Perfidious Albion is a rotten bunch of duplicitous bastards.

  2. Better the Russian shapka ushanka than the American traditional tattoo hat?

    1. Hi Dimitrios, oh! I agree. When we were in Tallin, Astonia we were able to purchased two very nice Russian army regimental shapka ushanka head coverings. We are not US tattoo hat genre types LOL. I’m not saying that the US doesn’t have excellent products, Telsa cars and Optimus AI humanoid robots will change the world.

  3. Mr Keys, an insightful opinion piece. It may come to pass, that Russia begins to fold and Putin feels he is pushed in a corner, and has one option left……. I do not hold the same optimisim as you about Trump in 2024. Trump wanted to remove US missiles from South Korea during his last term. Trump may have the rhetoric to rally the voters, but if you listen to the Trump tapes it is clear that he is mentally irrational, chaotic in his deviseness, and child-like in his rants. If you put on your legal hat, and listened to theTrump tapes you may argue that he is mentally unfit to stand trial. In regards to China, as long as long as Australia is selling them iron ore China’s military capacity grows. If China decided to invade Australia, our generals do not believe we would last three days. Further, Australia canno longer rely on the US to support Australia in a war. We need to pray that the UK stands strong, as they may be our only ally in a war. I agree the US unipolar world has fallen, and the future is a multipolar world. The question is which countries align with each other in influencing the power shift. I agree the BRICS may bring the US dollar down, hopefully return to the ‘gold standard’. John Cowper is on the money, that the real influencers are the financial backers and players in the background. Presidents and prime ministeres are pawns that change legislation to fill the pockets of ‘elite’. The ‘elite’ are too big to fail, wihout causing havoc on the worlds financial system and the West’s military capacity.

    1. Hi Quentin, those of us interested in international affairs, will debate the issues. Beyond the stock exchange equities, we are not gamblers. However, we placed a reasonable bet on a 2016 Trump win (Sportsbet) and were suitably rewarded. We suspect that Trump will win again on 2024. As far as irrational mentality, he’s very stable. On divisiveness, he is that way and probably naturally so. On child-like rants, that’s silly and subjective. What Trump tapes? the Planet Hollywood tapes are old hat. Trump is brilliant and if you can’t (or won’t) appreciate his brilliance it is on you. We agree on other issues and I definitely agree that John Cowper is on point.

      1. Mr Keys:, Bob Woodward taped his conversations with Donald Trump. It is of note that Donald Trump was eager for Bob Woodward to write a book about his presidency. Link to Trump Tapes:
        Bob Woodwards Books: ‘The Trump Tapes’, ‘Fear’ and ‘ Peril’. Happy reading and enjoy the humour in the books.
        Mate, I thought you were on top of all the information out there.
        Mr Keys, if trump were to be successfull in 2024 and serve 2 terms, do you honestly think he would be able to bring this ‘wokeness’ down?
        The conetemporary focus on voting to keep someone or party out, rather than voting for someone or party based on policiesthat will improve the life of Americans is crazy thinking. But, that is my opinion. Take care.

  4. You would not say this if you lived in Ukraine and your family had been murdered and your whole village been blown up

    1. Dave – Will is not cheering for Russia but saying the war was compelled upon them by Western forces (read USA) and their controlled Ukrainian leaders … the small guys in the middle are the obvious victims) – it can’t be far off the most avoidable unnecessary war in history – Putin is strong tough leader vilified by western media – the fact is if he hadn’t attacked Ukraine his generals would have replaced him with someone who would … if anything Putin is keeping the hawks in Moscow away from the nuclear button.

      1. Hi John, I could not have said it better myself. Quote, “the small guys in the middle are the obvious victims) – it can’t be far off the most avoidable unnecessary war in history – Putin is strong tough leader vilified by western media – the fact is if he hadn’t attacked Ukraine his generals would have replaced him with someone who would … if anything Putin is keeping the hawks in Moscow away from the nuclear button”. Spot on. Vladimir Putin was once praised and liked in the USA, until he wasn’t. I wonder if Dave has any concept of the immense power and evil perpetrated by the MIC, and using the MSM to vilify the victims?

    2. Hi Dave. If you are in such a position then you will be ‘subjective’ and we convey our commiserations. On the other hand we are ‘objective’ and that is as it should be.

  5. Decreased populations can potentially lead to disaster. Can someone please explain. I would have thought that a smaller population would be beneficial ??

    1. Hi Danny, I take your point, it is counter-intuitive. Research will confirm that the big Asian countries, the biggest populations, have responded most efficaciously to birth control. Shocking but true. Mathematics (and economics) dictates that populations must at least replace themselves lest the decline become unsustainable. There is a ratio of decline in population that it degenerative. Europeans, in Europe (as opposed to Muslims in Europe) are not replacing themselves and future generations will eventually eliminate themselves. Anyway, that is the theory.

  6. Well done Will … in general terms a very good essay … not too convinced about ‘ Deep State Theory’ but certainly those invisible faceless shareholders of the MIC are laughing all the way to the bank … if not war, then the manufactured threat of it (see Ukraine and “the huge threat of China”) offload reasons to buy and sell armaments. Poland, for example, have 5million Ukrainian refugees – but instead of catering for this humanitarian crisis is spending its reserves on an order for a thousand new tanks (from the MIC when it’s obvious Russia respects their sovereignty and has no reason to attack – as opposed to Ukraine, where it was left with no choice. Agree 100% with you that Moscow will turn that country into rubbble by the end of this. Once again, well done – good article.

    1. Hi John, we hopefully agree on the big issues. I go so far as to support the theory that the ‘Deep State’ is de facto the US Federal Government. I think the Deep State ‘zeitgeist’ is in Washington DC, and under the Biden Administration, completely out of control.
      “We live in interesting times”.

      1. Will – why not just call it the Federal Govt? There is no doubt of forces in the background making things happen – but that has always been the case. If you want the villains, as they say, just follow the money … the profiteers of the MIC. The tragi-irony is that iron rulers who won’t roll over, like Putin and Xi, are good for business.

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