Nigel Henson

 ‘Ti’s my bet you are reading this column for its sexual content. That is what it is all about. There is something furtive and naughty about it. But- we have a couple of elections ahead- furtiveness and naughtiness is guaranteed.                                         

The MK (Armed wing of the ANC) (Spear of the People) known also as Umkhonto Sizwe is currently an organisation of piss and wind, a far cry from when it was formed by Nelson Mandela in 1961.

What is however relevant is that MK is a legitimate political party, that JJZ is its leader, and that it will contest Provincial and National elections in 2024. It, at present has no relevance as any sort of credible armed force.

 Nevertheless, MK has the ability to cause Buffalo, Greedy, Lumpen and Co all manner of shit in a month or two.

Dear ole Buffalo has been rattling on about how everyone he speaks to is hinting at ’regime change’, and how it could come from most unexpected quarters-his Chairmanship of the Country Club hangs by a thread. Dark external forces are hinted at.

Quite- absolutely-I mean what is the likely outcome of an invasion by Upper Volta? Or perhaps Chad?  Are the blow-pipe pygmies of Burundi dipping their darts in fresh poison? Does the military might of Malawi constitute a threat?

South Africa was, until of late, possessed of the most powerful military machine on the African continent. It’s Air Force has on paper an inventory of 212 aircraft, including 40 attack machines, 32 transport aircraft and 82 helicopters. The balance is made up of various non-combat types-training machines etc.

Equally impressive is its army which is comprised of five brigades (about 5000 men in each); the fighting elements consisting of a brigade of armour (about 430 tanks and armoured cars),150 artillery pieces, and more motorized infantry battalions than one can shake a stick at.

Although small in comparison to its sister services, the South African Navy has a balanced inventory of three submarines, 4 frigates and over 30 inshore and offshore patrol vessels plus various other lesser craft.

The Air Force and Navy in particular were beneficiaries of the South African Arms strategic defence package of the late 1990’s intended to re-equip the forces at a cost (then) of about R 30 billion. This cost had risen to R90 billion by 2008, and was finally closed off at about R143 billion in 2020.

Of course, with that amount of dough flying around, accusations of malpractice filled the political space for a number of years-three former Defence Ministers, two Presidents and many others attracted much unwanted attention for using their influence to gain ‘a bit on the side’.

 A Commission of Enquiry was established in 2011 and after hearing evidence, interrogating dudes, travelling overseas on jaunts unlimited, summoning German, French and British arms suppliers and dealers, trawling bank accounts numerous , chatting to chums, sniffing bums, and much more; over a period of five years,  the duly- appointed investigators found everyone innocent, save a particularly grubby bloke called Tony Yengeni guilty of benefitting by receiving a 47% discount on the purchase of a Mercedes-Benz motor car! In celebration of his five-year sentence being reduced by Presidential pardon to 4 months in the clanger, Yengeni proceeded to drive about in his vehicle, and being loaded to the gills with single-malt, enjoy a series of spectacular vehicle mishaps. Of course, JJZ, never far from the smelly stuff continues to insist on his ’day in court’, but again, a series of all kinds of misunderstandings, bullshit, and a ‘Stalingrad ‘approach to legal challenge (8 years so far) has kept our hero from clearing his name before a Court of Law.

JJZ recently was reputed to have remarked as he stomped about on a stage and, in a short break from singing his favourite ‘struggle ditty’ in front of his eleventy wives stated that the country was on a slippery slide, as ‘there is no longer any justice in this land’.

Well-as a student of these things, any ‘regime change’ can only be achieved in a number of ways- at the ballot box- by internal insurrection -or- by invasion of the country by states and persons yet unidentified.

Regime change through the ballot box? The most likely of all scenarios. The ANC are deservedly terribly unpopular, yet it is indicated that their share of the popular vote will not sink below 40%. Coalition you ask- most probably the reply, but with whom? Perhaps they will take a leaf from history’s election rigger-in -chief, Robert of the North who wriggled his way out of one coalition after another with Morgan Tsvangirai, and then proceeded to bludgeon the remainder of the coalition forces into flight.

Regime change through internal insurrection? Possible, though it was tried a year or two back…July 2022 or thereabouts. Sporadic outbreaks of violence broke out simultaneously in various parts of the country; looting, burning and blockading of heavy-duty vehicles on the country’s main arterial routes; attacks and looting of retail and wholesale enterprises in the main centres, mostly their light industrial sites: storming of factories, stoning of vehicles and immobilisation of public transport- in fact, the country was trashed and fucked up, good and solid. Of course, poor and reluctant reaction to this widespread violence was the order of the day by the forces of law and order: not my fault, reply from the Minister of Defence- the Twat didn’t give us a ‘heads up’; of course I did, the Twat’s stock standard reply as both grossly overweight policemen and soldiers were hastily shoehorned into trucks, and without too much haste, dispatched to deal with all kinds of shit.

 Now, here’s a thing- guess what- it was really civil society that rallied together and dealt with the mobs in the absence of the puffing heavyweights: they meted out vigilante justice to the law breakers, giving them short shrift with pop guns, shot guns, blunderbusses and home -made cannon that scattered the TV set looters and had ‘em heading for the hills. In one spectacular act, a troop of Indian businessmen armed to their molars put hundreds of looters on their bottoms when the mobs were so foolish as to attack a complex that contained a number of atchar factories; moral of the story-never come between Ashid and his atchar.

Total cost to the economy-a mere R50 billion.

Yet, there is a more sobering issue involved here: one that could come back to bite. Not one thief, looter, murderer, neck lacer, rapist, rioter, destroyer of property or any other individual has been killed by the forces of Law and Order since the massacre at Marikana in 2012. Then, the Government balanced on a knife edge for weeks-it is now common cause that the forces of law and order will never kill another person in public, no matter how heinous the crime being committed. Police and soldiers now fire a few rubber bullets, and hope to fuck that the mob run away-if they don’t, and press home an attack, I fear for the consequence. 

Back to trying to affect a regime change- invasion of our beautiful land and slaughtering of its wonderful people.

Now here’s a serious thing. Remember all the dough that was so wisely spent to provide us with an arsenal of serious military hardware…R 140 billion a few years ago? We haven’t had a war, so it must all still be here, shining, buffed and ready to hurl munitions on our dastardly foes?

Let’s do an audit step by step.

 The Air Force-85% of inventory unserviceable. About 190 out of 205 aircraft are hors de combat- out of 26 Gripen fighters, 2 are serviceable; out of 39 large troop carrying helis,5 are serviceable;29 out of 32 transport aircraft are frot; and so on, and so on. Brother! In total there are 31 aircraft serviceable out of an inventory of 205.

 To the country’s great fortune, the Presidential Boeing is still on line.

Surely the Army is better? Dunno. Few statistics are published. However, a recent report revealed that 50% of bases occupied by the SA Army are not fit for human habitation. The average age of the army’s rank and file now makes terrifying reading: private soldiers average 34 years old and junior NCO’s 47.  In a recent bulletin the Ministry of Defence announced that a range of new uniforms will soon become available, better suited to accommodate the profile of today’s soldier.

Now -what a thing- heavyweight and aged infantry- hardly the projection of a mean, military machine. Larger targets too, for Burundi’s blow -pipe dudes.

And the Navy? The majority of our naval vessels are not seaworthy. One out of four frigates can put to sea, unaccompanied by a single submarine for they are incapable of submersing. I am sure that an audit of the remaining craft will show a similar picture. But hope is at hand, according to Defence Minister Thandi Modise who lauds that” within the SA Navy environment, vessels are being maintained in accordance and within the available budget.”

Slight prob here. No budget, no maintenance. Simple. Rubber duckie pirates could, with no fear of being accosted, easily rule our waves.

So, you would be forgiven for thinking that the parlous state of our conventional armed forces and all their wonderful kit that now resembles a boneyard of junk poses a grave threat to the nation’s security? At very least, one could conclude, it will make so much easier the changing of regime, for all our bangy stuff is pretty much stuffed, our infantry womble about, and our navy poses a grave danger to commercial shipping.

Now, the truth is the thing- these things matter not, for a couple of reasons. Our geographical location is one- a conventional military invasion of our homeland is a nigh impossible task, beyond the capability of virtually every military power on the planet. The distances are just too vast, the country is just too big, and the problem of policing it after a successful invasion don’t bear thinking about.

Secondly, we don’t have any enemies-there are any number of Western nations that are as pissed off as hell about us for we accept their handouts with ill- concealed grace-we then verbally trash them at every forum where we can; in spite of that, no one is inclined to launch hardware at us. We don’t have enemies-so why the fuck give an aeroplane the odd service or two? No one wants South Africa-its mineral resources are depleted, it has no oil, and the world has a more than adequate stock of sugar- cane and bananas. There is little of worth left.

Correction-we do have a potential enemy, one that has shown infinite patience in trying to avoid any contretemps; we deserve them as enemies, for we have worked long and hard on behalf of their foes to be deserved of their ire. It hasn’t been easy. Would Israel invade us… put it out of your mind, we are just not worth it. The whole of Western Europe is in greater danger of invasion than we will ever be: European forces are at an all- time low: whilst their tech is outstanding, they have sufficient munitions for one good skirmish; then they would rely on the French, who will then let everyone down, for the third time in living memory.

 So, regime change? I have often asked Zimbabweans why they do not resist and overcome the tyranny of the political party that has abused them for nigh on fifty years? I mean, regardless of one’s views, they gave white Rhodesians an awkward time. Their answer is straightforward; we do not have the people is the reply; all those capable of such action have long left the land of their birth; Zimbabwe is populated by the old (over 50) and the young (under 20), the productive have long decamped.

Regime change in South Africa? I think Buffalo has little to fear. He might have to do a bit of fancy footwork, but his Country Club are here to stay. He states that any coalition with the boys in red is really not on; nor is one with John Henry a terribly good idea. A coalition with MK headed up by Africa’s greatest mathematician? I mean, his supporters’ number in excess of twenty-seven thousand nine thousand-now listen carefully- two hundred four hundred seventy-five thousand; whatever- ‘tis unlikely, for Buffalo is still trying to have JJZ banned. 

 The Twat pretends to help (not really), for he is a man who wears many hats. He persuaded his great friend JJZ to go to gaol, and then ran around making sure he was released. A man of many hats, the Twat.

 In one form or another, the ANC will still provide the bulk of the next government. To swallow that is a difficult gulp.

Now…here is an unpalatable thing. Dry your eyes and get used to it.